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Service Play Tally - NFL 9/2

Kojack84 — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 17:37:56 GMT

starting this early...

buf - 1
det - 1

over -
under - 2

cin - 1
ind -

over - 1
under -

nwe -
nyg - 2

over - 1
under -

atl - 1
jax - 1

over -
under - 1

car - 1
pit - 1

over - 1
under -

nyj - 3
phi -

over -
under - 1

bal - 1
stl -

over - 1
under -

chi - 1
cle - 1

over -
under -

den - 1
min - 1

over -
under -

gb - 2
kc -

over - 1
under -

mia -
dal - 1

over -
under -

nor -
ten - 1

over - 1
under -

tb - 2
hou -

over -
under - 1

sd -
sf - 1

over - 1
under -

sea - 2
oak - 1

over - 1
under -

was - 1
ari - 1

over -
under - 3

this and past weeks also available at my blog...PM me for the link.

Preseason Week 4

ESQAJM — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 02:48:14 GMT

Well they say that all good things must come to an end. After going 12-0 for the first 2 weeks and up 34 units, I went 3-4 last week and lost 3 units. My record is now 15-4.

I'm still up good money for the preseason and am +34 units as of today. Even with the loss in week 3 this has been my best ever preseason so far.

I have 2 games this week, but I'm stretching to make Cinn 3* because laying 6.5 points on the road in preseason doesn't make sense. But I expect Indy to lay down in this game and just coast. I would have made Tenn a 3*, but I'm not going to give 7.5 in preseason to NO. Even though I expect them to lay down also.

All bets are 3*:
Cinn -6.5
Washington +6

6 point Teaser:
Cinn -.5
Wash +12

10 point Teaser:
Cinn +3.5
Wash +16
Jax +7

Moneyline parlay for 1/2 Unit:
Wash - Pick
San Diego - Pick
I always like to play one of these every preseason for a small amount. I don't know the payout yet, but hitting this with 2 underdogs could pay about 8-1. I seem to remember hitting it last year.

Let's see if I could finish the season on a winning note.
Good Luck Guys

Some more plays

Jetplane — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:18:27 GMT

If you wanna question the lines... goto COVERS.COM cuz they are there now.

BUF +5
IND +6.5
ATL +3
BAL +3
GB +6
N.O +7

Week #1 getting them in now

boss1 — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 18:59:05 GMT

Car + 7 1/2 *4
GB- 2 1/2 *7
over 47 GB/Philly *3

I am new to this site. I don�t do write ups. Just here to help and win $$$$
Good luck to all if you follow or fade..

Plays are 1-10*

Ytd on RX 0-0

2010 Service Play Tally threads

Kojack84 — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:04:47 GMT

Hi all,

It's that time of year again, to fade the touts/services.

Just an FYI: I will be doing it again this year, and have actually created a blog to centralize all the data. I just went through the preseason and did all the tallies to see how it did.

I'm still not sure what the rules are for posting links to free blogs...so I won't. But if you want it let me know.

I'll be posting the exact same info here as well.

Anyone on Post Review please see this thread.

wilheim — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 10:48:02 GMT

Important - anyone on post review please read..

Post Review is when you make a post but you get a message that a moderator has to review the post first before it can be posted in it's intended forum.

I would like to take you off post review and allow you to post freely here on The Rx.com Posting Forum without having to wait for a moderator to review every post you make.

The reason you are on Post Review is probably something to do with the way you registered. In many cases it is you have a posting name already active coming from your IP. but there are other reasons such as needless cheap shots at other posters, our sponsors or our staff..

If The Rx.com has you on post review and you would like to get off please email me at wilheim@therx.com back-up person19481950@yahoo.com and include your Rx poster name in the email. Please title the email Rx Post Review Removal so I will be able to identify the email and not treat it like spam.

I may have to ask you a question or two but ultimately I want to free up posters restricted by post review. There are no guarantees but a brief email is the best way to get off post review..

Thank you, wilheim

FANTASY Auction LEAGUE 11 est tonight!!

Swift456 — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 01:45:25 GMT

Did Auction Draft for tonight at 11:00 est. Should take about an Hour.

10 Team league. 1 PPR, Everything else is standard. Lineup contains one flex.

Playoffs start in week 13 6 out of the 10 make playoffs with 1st two seeds getting byes.

Go sign up !!!!

Link: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/join?leagueId=859661
Password: maddenvg

Chasing Brett Favre's NFL Records

Hache Man — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 01:41:34 GMT

Chasing Brett Favre's NFL records

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees could reach his milestones, but it's a long shot

By Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders

Three years ago, when Brett Favre first retired from the NFL, he held the league's all-time records for completions, passing yards and touchdowns -- but it sure didn't seem like he would hold those records for long. Peyton Manning's phenomenal numbers had him on pace to pass all of Favre's records except for the one Favre doesn't really want, the one for career interceptions.

Manning keeps plugging along with superb seasons, but Favre's continual un-retirements have been moving the goalposts farther and farther back. How good are Manning's chances to eventually set NFL records after Favre adds three more years of stats on to the totals from his career with the Green Bay Packers?

To figure out the chances of Manning -- and other quarterbacks, such as Aaron Rodgers, as framed in this debate -- eventually passing Favre's records, I adapted an old Bill James baseball tool called the Favorite Toy. The basic idea is to project how many seasons a player has left and compare that to his "established performance level" in order to find his odds of reaching a certain milestone.

The number of seasons a player has left is determined by a fairly simple equation: Start with the number 24, then subtract 60 percent of the player's age last season. Tom Brady, for example, is 33 years old; when you do the equation, he has about five years left in the NFL. Rodgers has about 8.4 seasons left.

The established performance level is calculated this way:
[(3*Total Last Year) + (2*Total Two Years Ago) + (1*Total Three Years Ago)] / 6

For Brady and Carson Palmer, because they were significantly injured two years ago, I used 2007 and 2006 instead of 2008 and 2007. Then, because Favre will play one more season, I added Favre's current "established performance level" to his career totals in order to get the "projected milestones" that the other quarterbacks will be attempting to match a few years from now.

What are the results?

Well, Peyton Manning still has a chance to surpass Brett Favre's records, but that chance is a lot smaller than it was two or three years ago. The formula also gives Drew Brees a small chance of passing Favre, and a couple of younger quarterbacks are long shots to match his yardage total, but that's about it.

Chances Of Reaching Favre

Here are three major Brett Favre stats (projected out to one more year of playing), and the three current QBs most likely to get to that threshold -- with percentage chance.

Favre Stat	Current QB No. 1	Current QB No. 2	Current QB No. 3
6,440 completions	Peyton Manning (22 percent)	Drew Brees (13 percent)	Aaron Rodgers (1 percent)
73,300 yards	Manning (27 percent)	Brees (15 percent)	Rodgers (6 percent)
525 touchdowns	Manning (31 percent)	Brees (11 percent)	Tom Brady (5 percent)

No current quarterback is going to come close to even smelling Favre's record for interceptions, currently at 317. Favre is an astonishing two hundred interceptions ahead of every other active starting quarterback except one: Peyton Manning, who has 181 career picks.

However, there is one quarterback record that will likely be broken by at least two active quarterbacks: the career record for taking sacks. Favre will actually be the first active quarterback to break the record, because he doesn't hold it yet. John Elway is currently the leader with 516 sacks. Favre currently has 503. Based on his recent track record, he will end his career with a new record of roughly 530 sacks. That record will last a few years, at which point it will probably be broken by a two-time Super Bowl champion who really, really hates to throw the ball away: Ben Roethlisberger has a remarkable 80 percent chance of breaking that less-than-renowned record.

Yes, Roethlisberger really takes that many sacks. Right now he has 242, and his "established performance level" according to the formula above is 48 per year. At that rate, he would blow past Favre's new mark in the middle of the 2016 season, while both Rodgers (34 percent) and Donovan McNabb (29 percent) show up with significant chances as well.

Favre's other records may seem untouchable, but he's got nothing on Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice. The Favorite Toy formula says only two current players have more than a 1 percent chance of passing one of Smith or Rice's records. LaDainian Tomlinson is currently second all-time in rushing touchdowns and has a 30 percent chance of passing Smith, while Randy Moss is currently second all-time in receiving touchdowns and has a 16 percent chance of passing Rice.

Packers 34-16....

Francesco — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:34:34 GMT

Eagles are so far away from ready it's SCARY...

Eagles u8.5 may be the play too...

I loaded up on Pack...bank it

Bucs Release RB Derrick Ward

Hache Man — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:03:51 GMT


	Bucs release free agent flop Derrick Ward
	Derrick Ward - RB - TB - Aug. 31
	Bucs released RB Derrick Ward. It may seem hard to believe that the Bucs would cut ties with Ward one year after signing him to a four-year, $17 million contract, but anybody watching him run in preseason action could see the writing on the wall. Ward has lost more than few steps, and the difference in burst between him and Kareem Huggins was stark. Huggins will move into the change-of-pace role while Cadillac Williams solidifies his standing as the lead back. GM Mark Dominik's seat continues to get hotter and hotter.

Plaxico Burress Denied Work Release From Prison

Hache Man — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:03:12 GMT


	Plaxico Burress loses bid for work release
	Plaxico Burress - WR - NYG - Aug. 31 - 5:37 p.m. ET
	Former Giants WR Plaxico Burress has lost his bid for a work release from prison. The star-crossed Burress' bad luck continues. The Department of Correctional Services revealed that Plax will not be able to reapply for release before June of 2011, pending appeal. Perhaps we'll see Burress in a 2011 camp, but he'll be 34 and coming off two missed seasons at that point. Source: Associated Press

Sharp NFL Futures: Season win totals and Division Winners (2010 Edition)

VoiceofReason101 — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 15:43:25 GMT

I was on a plane heading to the big apple for my first time...the day was sunny here in Miami and I remember seeing south beach and downtown Miami descend as my plane lifted in route to Gotham City. Even at 16 I was a meticulous planner and had drawn up and purchased up a few value packs available for all the landmarks, museums, and worthy shows available. But like most trips what you remember most is not the attractions but the people, atmosphere, and the smell. The last day of my trip I remember going to a neighborhood bar with my father, it was the last time me and my father enjoyed a beer together. We chatted all things gambling, women, and off the beaten path stuff. I recall his advice as clear as day when it came to sports betting and that was to invest in futures. They might be variables that you can't control (injuries, locker room drama, etc.) but if you can anticipate ahead of the curb then you'll do just fine. So for the very first time since that day I'll attempt to do some futures in the NFL (note I've done rather well in the NBA, EPL, and even the Tour de France, so my track record has been pretty good involving other sports).

Unit/Dollar Breakdown:

1*: $300
.5*: $150
.1*: $30

My final Selections

1* Tampa O5.5 -130
.40* St. Louis O4.5 +100
.10* St. Louis O5 +115
.50* Jax O7.5 +190
.50* Miami U8.5 +110
.50* Oakland U6.5 +110
.20* AFC WEST Division Winner other than SD +260 (Greek)
.12* Baltimore -115 to win Division (Great value at Matchbook)
.12* Packers +100 to win Division
.04* Panthers/Bucs to win Division +625

Final Week of Preseason Picks...15-8 ytd

G. MONEY — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 14:18:57 GMT

7-5 Totals
8-3 sides

105 Cinc -6 1/2
110 Jax -3
117 G. Bay +5 1/2
120 Clev under 37 1/2
125 Den +4 1/2
129 Wash + 5 1/2
131 Seattle + 3 1/2

Good Luck this week!

Air Chosen Week 1.

Air Chosen — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 03:27:23 GMT

week 1 always seems like a great time to get value on the better teams. i'll take my chances with these 3 plays below.

Rams +4-2 units
I've seen a few of the rams pre-season games and these guys are playing extremely hard and looks liek they have bought into their coach's system. Bradford has looked solid and there is a new vibe around the rams locker room. Cardinals look like a mess and they just lost their full back, and they still don't know who will start at quarterback. they also don't know who is the main running back yet. with all the confusion and uncertainty i dont see much chemistry and i think andersona and leinart both suck ass. excuse my french. take the rams

49ers -2.5-1 unit
This may look too easy because so many people are loving the 49ers this year, and looking for a team breakout year and easily take the division. well, i actually buy into this. they have a strong defense and they now have 3 solid running backs. that 3rd stringer dixon is a beast, watch out for him when gore and westbrook get hurt. anyways, this just looks great to me and it's simply me believing there is no "trap" here. buy into the 49ers. buy into singletary. buy into the solid new offensive line.

Packers -2.5-1 unit
the question is, how will the defense play? because there's no question this is an amazing offense and rodgers is only getting better. he has been staying upright in pre-season and thats huge for green bay. honestly im not buying into kevin kolb and i dont like the eagles' situation. kolb is overrated and unproved. i'll take a great packers team. no trap here.

CHIEFS +5, I REPEAT CHIEFS +5-5 units
this is a great line here for kansas city. i believe this team has a shot at the playoffs. jamal charles is simply chris johnson part 2 and they now have thomas jones as a sidekick. the running game will be there, and charlie weis will be there to improve cassell, who is familiar with the ex-pats weis. another case of a team making strides in pre-season and showing a ton of promise. chargers are dealing with the no show vincent jackson as well as offensive lineman ryan mcneil. also, they have a rookie running back in ryan matthews. there have been changes in san diego. i love this play, especially the chiefs being at home on opening monday night. look for the chiefs to win straight up but why not be safe and take the +5. big 5 unit play here.

that's all for now, those are my babies in week 1, be safe and trust in a long-run success.

Vincent Jackson's Playing Days Likely Over In San Diego

Hache Man — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 21:55:02 GMT


	V-Jax's Bolts career 'almost certainly' over?
	Vincent Jackson - WR - SD - Aug. 30
	The San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee opines that Vincent Jackson "almost certainly" will not play for the Chargers again. Sept. 4 is the key date for Jackson's 2010 season. If he's not signed by Saturday afternoon, his Roster Exempt status will increase his suspension from three games to six. Acee expects Jackson's camp to lower their asking price in money as well as years to facilitate a trade by the weekend. There's also been speculation that V-Jax would play out the 2010 season on a one-year deal as long as he's compensated as a Top-10 NFL receiver. Source: San Diego Union-Tribune