http://www.therxforum.com/ This forum is for financial topics only. Please adhere to forum rules. Violators will be banned from this forum and possibly the entire site. en Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:24:41 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forum.therx.com/images/misc/rss.png http://www.therxforum.com/ http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791569&goto=newpost Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:04:25 GMT electric car conversion company, moving forward worth a look, good buy and hold ELCR electric car conversion company, moving forward worth a look, good buy and hold ELCR ]]> Financial Investment Forum. holdingaces http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791569 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791561&goto=newpost Thu, 02 Sep 2010 13:26:34 GMT this is one check out the story with Plavix ... this is one check out the story with Plavix
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/InoLif....html?x=0&.v=1 ]]> Financial Investment Forum. holdingaces http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791561 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791036&goto=newpost Mon, 30 Aug 2010 22:02:44 GMT *Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bought a 12.5 percent stake in Betfair Ltd.’s stock exchange, the Sunday... Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bought a 12.5 percent stake in Betfair Ltd.’s stock exchange, the Sunday Times reported, citing people familiar with the plans.
The exchange, called LMAX, will allow users to trade “contracts of difference” and has been approved by the Financial Services Authority, the London-based newspaper said.

Betfair declined to comment on LMAX ahead of an expected initial public offering later this year, the newspaper said.

Separately, IG Group Holdings Plc, owner of the IG Index financial spread-betting brand, asked PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP to find a buyer for its sports-betting arm Extrabet, the Times said, without citing anyone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...imes-says.html

www.betfair.net ]]> Financial Investment Forum. Betfair.com http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=791036 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790867&goto=newpost Sun, 29 Aug 2010 19:20:59 GMT I know I can get a straight answer here. I have tried before to get a loan modification. I filled... I know I can get a straight answer here. I have tried before to get a loan modification. I filled out tons of paperwork...it took forever...then the bank came back and said I was ineligble because I made too much money. It seemed like bs to me because they could've said that right from the start. I thought there was a stipulation that if your payment was over 31% of your monthly income you were eligble. That applies to me and that is where I thought I could get one. Does anyone get these modifications? I was thinking about applying again but don't know if I should even waste my time. Any insight/advice/help appreciated. thanks in advance. ]]> Financial Investment Forum. joebatters http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790867 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790453&goto=newpost Fri, 27 Aug 2010 03:32:54 GMT If you have a business and need to raise money these days it may be very difficult. Unsecured loans... If you have a business and need to raise money these days it may be very difficult. Unsecured loans are very difficult...but if you have decent credit you can do a lease back with equipment. 100k and you would have to pay say a 5 year note off - but you would get back 80k in cash. Yes of course expensive but if you have a business or an idea for a project that will make money - its a great idea...where else can one raise 100-500k with no income verification. If say someone used 200k and got back 160k - if the 160k returned them a nice profit or allowed them to build/develop an idea/business/project it is a very creative way to raise "unsecured" capital... ]]> Financial Investment Forum. spxks http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790453 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790211&goto=newpost Wed, 25 Aug 2010 17:38:36 GMT Online gambling giant given option to take up a 40 percent stake in online gaming firm The UK... Online gambling giant given option to take up a 40 percent stake in online gaming firm

The UK and Australian-based Betfair online gambling group has been given an opportunity to expand into the Pacific Ring market following an offer from Manila, Philippines-based Diversified Financial Network Inc.(DFNN), reports the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

DFNN reported to the Philippine Stock Exchange that it has offered Betfair an option to purchase up to 40 percent of its gaming subsidiary, Interactive Entertainment Solutions Technologies (IEST), a unit of DFNN's majority owned Singapore-based subsidiary Pacific Gaming Investments Pte. Ltd. (PGI), at a strike price of $15 million based on enterprise valuation.

Deadline for expiration on the offer is August 19, 2011.

Bringing Betfair into the DFNN group's gaming business as a strategic partner is part of a bid to replicate in Asia the giant gambling group's success in European and Australian online betting, the newspaper speculates.

DFNN may also be planning to increase its interest in IEST, according to a company disclosure statement, which advised: "The management of DFNN is studying its current investment structure into IEST and may possibly increase its holdings in IEST."

www.betfair.com ]]> Financial Investment Forum. Betfair.com http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=790211 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789968&goto=newpost Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:03:06 GMT Down over 1%......very big support at 9000 Could really plummet if it dips under 9k Overnights... Down over 1%......very big support at 9000
Could really plummet if it dips under 9k
Overnights all down may have Dow testing 10K

Nikkei drops below 9,000, first time since May 2009


TOKYO | Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:16pm EDT

TOKYO Aug 24 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average dropped below the closely watched 9,000 point mark for this first time in 15 months on Tuesday after U.S. stocks weakened, with a pick-up in corporate takeover activity failing to soothe concerns that the recovery is stalling.
The benchmark Nikkei .N225 slipped 1.5 percent to 8,983.93 points shortly after the opening, its lowest since May 2009, while the broader Topix .TOPX declined 1.2 percent to 814.68.
The 9,000 to 9,100 area had been strong support for the Nikkei index since last year, halting several recent attempts to break through on the downside, but worries about Japan's economic recovery, heightened by the yen's climb this month to a 15-year high against the dollar, put persistent pressure on stocks. (Reporting by Ai ]]> Financial Investment Forum. Coaster http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789968 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789738&goto=newpost Sun, 22 Aug 2010 18:09:25 GMT Hello, this is my first time posting on this forum. I am 23 years old and just did my first trade... Hello, this is my first time posting on this forum. I am 23 years old and
just did my first trade about a month ago. I bought around 550 shares of UCO
at $8.53 and sold at around $10.50. I am again looking to buy back into UCO
now that it has dipped below the $9 mark.

Here is my question for you guys, everything I am reading makes it sound
like buying into UCO right now is a HORRIBLE idea. All these articles talk
about how high the oil inventories are and how the demand for oil is very
low. Oil has been following the DJ a lot as of late which has also been
taking a hit lately. Projections are talking about oil going down to about
$70 a barrel in the near future. Basically these articles to me make it
sound like EASY money to just short the oil market. I am a pretty successful
sports handicapper and have noticed that when a team sounds like easy money,
they usually aren't and I am wondering if this is the case also for oil
right now.

Do you think buying into UCO at $8.90 is a bad idea with the intent of
selling in the next two months in the $10 range? I know the graphs are
nothing but history but buying in the $8's has been a good investment
lately. Thanks in advance for any responses. ]]> Financial Investment Forum. sweetjones55 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789738 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789331&goto=newpost Fri, 20 Aug 2010 01:13:45 GMT If you guys in this forum have already got a thread on this, point me to it....If not, feedback... If you guys in this forum have already got a thread on this, point me to it....If not, feedback appreciated

========
'Vice Fund' Touts Recession-Proof Portfolio: 'Booze, Bets, Bombs and Butts'


BOSTON — So much for virtue. Sin is in.


That's according to a mutual fund manager who's finding plenty of investment opportunities in companies profiting from vices like smoking, drinking and gambling.
Jeff Middleswart's aptly named Vice Fund is beating the house in a down market. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 1.9 percent this year. Yet stocks of cigarette makers are up an average 12 percent.


The Vice Fund's three biggest holdings are cigarette stocks: Philip Morris International Inc., Lorillard Inc. and Altria Group Inc. That explains why the fund is up 4.5 percent this year, ranking in the top 3 percent of its large-blend fund peers according to Morningstar.


Defense contractors – another fund mainstay – are up an average 12 percent.



Some group contractors in this category because their profits are tied to the escalation of conflicts. Alcoholic beverages? Up 6 percent.


Vice is the lifeblood of a fund that's a counterpoint to investment products touting themselves as socially responsible because they favor companies ostensibly benefiting society. This year, those stocks aren't doing anything special. An index of socially responsible stocks, the MSCI USA Large Cap ESG, is down 1.7 percent.


Vice Fund (VICEX) is rebounding from lagging returns in 2008 and 2009. Its turnaround would be even bigger if not for the average 30 percent decline for stocks of gaming companies. They're struggling to cut hefty debt loads, a legacy from years of casino-building.


Vice is the only fund explicitly focusing on sin stocks. Its portfolio of about 30 stocks is divided almost equally among cigarettes, alcohol, gaming and casinos, and defense – industries that typically hold up well in tough times. Although such a small portfolio can lead to volatility, the Vice Fund offsets that risk by emphasizing steady dividend-paying stocks.


Middleswart replaced previous manager Charles Norton in February, after more than two decades as an investment analyst. The 40-year-old Dallas resident manages the eight-year-old fund for USA Mutual Funds, along with the smaller Generation Wave Growth Fund (GWGFX), which invests in stocks expected to profit from spending by baby boomers. Both were founded by Dan Ahrens, who left in 2005 after writing a book that explained his investment thesis. Its title: "Investing in Vice: The Recession-Proof Portfolio of Booze, Bets, Bombs, and Butts."

(continues at link above) ]]> Financial Investment Forum. barman http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=789331 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=788681&goto=newpost Mon, 16 Aug 2010 04:40:44 GMT I know most of the forum thinks that the sky is falling so it's probably a mistake to ask, but I wanted to get everyone's thoughts on the proposed GM IPO.

I'm not talking about where you think it will be 5-10 years from now, I'm thinking 20-25 years. ]]> Financial Investment Forum. Death Eats a Cracker http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=788681 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=788659&goto=newpost Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:33:21 GMT *http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/* *Saturday, August 14, 2010* *Weekend Charts... http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/



Saturday, August 14, 2010

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update Sat 10:41PM]


[Update 10:41PM: Let me again talk about debt. Debt and debt defaults are a key component of P[3] down and a deflationary collapse of the financial system. The credit bubble will not last. Every credit bubble in history has ended, and this one will too. None have ended nicely. Indeed collapsing credit will help propel P[3] down in stocks and all asset classes. Values of all assets will be in question particularly debt and certainly including government debt. This is what comes out of a great panic that is predicted in P[3].

Now in conjunction with the overall larger wave count in that we are in the opening stages of P[3] down, the debt bubble should be coming to an end sometime in the short term future. As I have talked about recently, the general public is certainly heavily involved via 401K's, pension funds, IRA's, etc. - quietly of course - after all who can get that excited about bonds? And we all know that once the general public is "on board" the end is not too far off. The little guy always is left holding the bag. It happened in tech stocks, it happened in real estate and it certainly will happen with the coming debt implosion.


Now exactly when will this bubble end? Well, we have had zero interest rates practically for a few years now. We have had a 30 year up channel in bond prices. Yields have consistently over the years lurched toward new lows in a non-diverged manner.


We now have once again yet another lurch toward new yield lows across the spectrum. We have had new lows on 2 years and likely we will on 5 years. 10 year and 30 year is a question mark.


I propose that a major divergence will occur marking the end of the bond bubble. In other words when the 30 year cannot be pushed down any lower in yield and does not breach its late 2008 yield, it will mark the end of the bubble.

Then the yields will start to reverse. Instead of the lower end of the curve dragging down the longer end, the rising 30 yr rate will pull up the lower end. And interest rates will begin to rise. And this movement will continue in the natural course of things. Eventually the 30 year price channel up will break as a result and things could accelerate.

And rising interest rates will help trigger debt defaults which is deflationary. And debt defaults will help trigger derivative "events". And derivative events will beget more derivative events which will trigger more debt defaults. Think of a room full of mousetraps and a loose ping-pong ball. Contracting credit and debt defaults are deflationary.

That is the simplest way of looking at things. When bond sentiment is "sky high" and the general public is all on board and record junk debt is at an all-time high, the end game is near.

When they can no longer push the 30 year back under the 2008 level, the game is up in my opinion.

People are still way too comfortable with debt in general. A 30 year rise in bond prices will help do that. Its almost time.

[Update 8:10PM: Speaking of bonds again, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703960004575427690901781072.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection (hat tip: Mick_C_Pitlick)


Recently I have suggested that the 30 year and 10 year prices will not exceed the last price high. It sure feels like we are in the "end game" stages of the great debt mania of our lifetimes. We got mom and pop piling into debt of all kinds: High yield municipal, junk and soverign. Recently an informal poll at my work supports this idea. "Regular" folk are sick of the stock market and figure bonds are finally the "safe" way to go. The idea of simple cash is most farthest still from the minds of most. Partially that is because our 401K's are not geared toward even having cash as an option (unless you consider the money markets as a "cash account")


So no doubt, debt mania is getting its final run. Question is, will it be a complete parabolic blowoff peak? Well, we'll certainly find out as the fun and games begin.


One chart I will be watching is this below. A simple price chart (and I have yields too). I figure, like all markets usually, there most likely will be divergences marking the top of this all-time move in bonds. My take is the 30 and 10 will diverge with the 2 and 5 year.


So far there is a divergence with the 2 year versus the 5,10 and 30. I suspect the 5 year will make a new price high. But again, I maintain the 10 and 30 will not. The 10 may be iffy so we'll see.


Simple but should be hopefully effective. I am thinking the top of the debt bubble will show a simple negative divergence on this chart. Notice there has been no divergence before on this chart.

[Update Sat 6:55PM:
THE GREAT INFLATION-DEFLATION DEBATE
I continue to hold the long-term view that the financial system will experience not a Japan-style low interest rate off-and-on deflation, but a high interest rate (eventually) deflationary collapse. This is pretty much what Robert Prechter more or less has suggested.


This article in ZH got me thinking again http://www.zerohedge.com/article/buffett-vs-gross-or-inflation-vs-deflation-who-right


Now having never read Prechter's "Conquer the Crash" book, I have seen enough EWI-promoted quotes from it to have practically read it in its entirety three times over. (yes that is a snarky comment).


But again, I think in general, most thinking at the moment is that the lowering of treasury yields across the yield curve has signaled a Japan-style deflation to come. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/former-bank-regulator-william-black-us.html This is the general viewpoint. And per the opposite end of the argument if rates rise, and rapidly, its signalling an inflationary event perhaps even hyperinflation. You could probably throw the term "stagflation" into this rising rate camp.


I think things will happen "outside the box" and we will experience a deflationary collapse with rising interest rates. Basically sovereign debt will start to default worldwide causing rates to go up. Therefore credit will continue to shrink and panic will set in. The value of everything will be severely questioned particularly the value of debt in general. A snowball effect could easily happen causing more defaults, derivatives to blow up and the entire world's financial markets to seize and stop functioning. This is of course deflationary because total money = credit + money.


THE EFFECTS OF A COLLAPSING PONZI IN SLOW MOTION - DEFLATION AND INFLATION AT THE OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE PYRAMID
The sucky thing is, that until that penultimate panic spot happens, the Ponzi pyramid will in effect crush the little guy in the form of a "price gouge" on the quality of living. Many will call this inflation but I simply call it the effects of the collapse of the Ponzi pyramid. Or a great "price gouge" on the lower classes in order to try to keep the upper class inflated.


Think of it this way: Lets suppose that the entire "wealth" system is one big pyramid (which it is by the way) with the super rich in the tip of the pyramid and at the bottom is the unwashed masses. On the one hand you have deflation caving in the pyramid from the top which causes those with "assets" to lose significant wealth. Naturally our banker-run system is out to protect that class and pumps in inflation. But that inflation can only be pumped into the pyramid via the bottom of the pyramid to try and counter act that deflationary pressure.


Now being that the unwashed masses are at the bottom of the pyramid, they feel the effects of that attempt to produce inflation. They get taxed more, they face higher fees, they feel the effects of higher commodity prices relative to 15 years ago, all the while their paychecks are shrinking or they are being laid off. All this has a great inflationary effect (cost of basic living takes more of their smaller paychecks) particularly on the lower/stagnant income they receive.


In a nutshell, the lower classes have massive inflationary pumps blowing hot air into their faces at the bottom of the pyramid brought on by monetary policy of the banker/political class.


So the Fed has the air pumps blowing and the immediate effects are at the bottom of the pyramid blowing hot air on all the masses in an attempt to keep the tip of the pyramid from collapsing. They feel the air. Yet the get no benefit as they are unable to catch any "benefits" of the hot breeze. Their paychecks are not inflating (true inflation) and thus they cannot do their part in the pyramid. They are being sucked dry and getting burnt with the hot bypass gases. Combined with the lurch toward higher fees and taxes and deflationary wages, the lower classes are getting squeezed very hard. They see this as inflationary. Less money + higher cost of basic subsistence = they see it as inflationary. This is particularly true when the lower masses have no assets to speak of. An example: Implementing a "sin tax" of higher liquor and tobacco taxes hurts who? Certainly not the tip of the pyramid!


So at the opposite end at the tip of the pyramid, we have the super rich. Raising the sin tax on alcohol or cigarettes has no effect on them, yet a 20% deflation decline in asset prices certainly does! So the Fed pumps the pyramid yet the pyramid is what it is: A Ponzi built on the backs of the masses. This is why deflation and inflation is in a death struggle yet deflation will always win. Ponzi's always collapse.


But until then, the people residing in the lower part of the pyramid will keep feeling the monetary taxes and higher fees and monetary effects of the Fed and the price gouging. They will not fare well at all. At the same time the upper half of the pyramid will start to collapse despite the government's attempts to pump in inflation.


Thus you will have inflation pumps at the bottom and deflation pressures wiping out the wealthy and thus the pyramid will start to collapse in on itself despite the monetary attempts to keep it inflated. This will suck on everyone. Eventually the pyramid collapses as deflation always wins out once your past the point of no return (which I think we are) and Ponzi schemes always collapse.


THE END RESULT
The end result is that the lower half and middle of the pyramid, who have less assets than those at the top will be sucked dry in the attempt to save the entire pyramid from collapsing. Of course this will fail as the very act of sucking the bottom dry will in fact help collapse the top of the pyramid itself!

So in the end the inflation/deflation debate is almost a moot point. Like Einstein's theory of relativity, it depends on where you reside currently in the pyramid.


The bottom line is that the very act of trying to pump in inflation at the bottom will ensure the bottom "foundation" of the pyramid is terminally weakened. Thus the top will collapse in deflation and a destruction of credit and debt will eventually win out.


And at the end of the day, it will be both inflation (attempts) and deflation that destroyed the pyramid. Yet when the pyramid is a collapsed pile of rubble in the end, we can say that deflation truly won.


But tell that to the little guy...


[Update Sat 5:40PM: Old nemesis BIDU. Finally showing some weakness on the weekly charts. An eventual move to the $62 range seems doable or at least the $65 pivot. Volume is low though.]

[Update Sat 5:15PM: Visa is one unusual chart pattern. Perhaps a mega-triangle is forming which the [e] possibly forming its own triangle. I have it as a bearish triangle with a breakdown imminent. Notice all the gaps down and cover.]

[Update Sat 12:53PM: Don't think I am going bullish with my opening post remarks (hey I don't want to alienate any market bull readers of this blog.)


Because certainly things are looking very good for bears. First, the "must defend" zone for the bulls, using the Wilshire which I prefer, is pretty much upon us. Should we get a downdraft come Monday/Tuesday that breaks this zone, a lot of bull stops will likely be broken, mentally and otherwise. But it of course has yet to actually happen. Yet we have good reason to expect it will. An ED wedge pattern predicts that it will happen quickly.


Even if we get a wave (ii) bounce, as long as it is an a-b-c "three" we should be ok. Certainly 1100SPX, if nibbled upon again, should bring out a ton of sellers and present difficult resistance.


This is an extremely fractured market as the triggering of a "Hindenburg Omen" has attested. In addition we have a nearly perfect base channel on most every index in log scale which is probably preferable.

The weekly candle is a bearish engulfing. The 13/34/50 compares remarkably to the 2007 downdraft. Indeed things are bearish.]

Original post:
PRECHTER'S APRIL EW THEORIST CALCULATION
I have blogged recently on how Robert Prechter (in his April EW Theorist newsletter) recently and brilliantly computed a time ratio in comparison to the 1929-1932 decline. He then applied this ratio to the 1930 rally peak and correctly targeted the recent April 26th, 2010 peak using this ratio. Taking that concept one step further, I wondered if the same ratio can be applied to subsequent bounce spots after the initial 1930 rally peak.

In 1930, the 5+ month rally after the initial 1929 panic dropoff peaked on April 16th, 1930. After the 16th of April 1930 peak, there was then an initial sharp decline. Then the markets rallied for a small double-humped retrace that topped June 2nd, 1930.

So applying Prechter's methods outlined in his April 2010 newsletter, I calculated a time ratio from 16 April - 2 June 1930. I then applied this ratio to the current market and came up with a time span of 123-128 calendar days. This 123-128 day time span would correlate to the April 16 - 2 June 1930 time span.

So using this calendar time span and applying it to the 26th April 2010 top we come up with a retrace rally time window of 27 August - 1 September. Calculations: 26 April + 123 days = 27th August. 26 April + 128 days = 1 September.

So far we have the rebound marked Minor 2 high at day number 105 (August 9th) which is short of my 123-128 day ratio calculation. ]]> Financial Investment Forum. Spread Destroyerr http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=788659 http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=787801&goto=newpost Wed, 11 Aug 2010 02:34:10 GMT Family is heavily 1 sided on Royal Dutch Shell....stocks have been tied up in a court case that... Family is heavily 1 sided on Royal Dutch Shell....stocks have been tied up in a court case that went on 4 years. Settled now and looking to diversify.
The stock is back up to a 52 week high as are most all oil stocks BP not included. BUT still its nowhere near its 3 yr high . its been 45 awhile, now up to 60 but once traded at 90.....Family doesnt know beans from shinola about investing and im just a notch above them. They insist on hanging on till it gets back up ....i kinda think it'll be quite sometime if ever that it goes back to 90....

Your thoughts on the stock, oil stocks in general ????? ]]> Financial Investment Forum. ProPokerPlayer http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=787801