[aiverson]

These were e-mailed out on Friday night and posted to my site earlier tonight (click my avatar and look on my space to find the site address).

I've got 2 releases thus far this week and a third which is virtually cancelled due to Ike, and it was the Over for Pit/Cle Sunday night.

I'll go ahead and post all 3 writeups below, though I advise not playing the Pit/Cle game, you can just think "what might have been".

I will be back on Sunday w/ 1-2 more plays. Will try to get them posted as early as possible, but the fastest way to get my plays is to sign up for the e-mail.

A reminder prior to the plays: My system has not kicked in, so all plays are based on my own handicapping methods. As good or bad as these plays may turn out, I anticipate stronger results as the season progresses and my system syncs up more and more.

Week 2 Plays:

Chi +3.5
Ten +1

Writeups:

Chi +3.5
I know the only saying about taking a team off a Primetime, Nationally televised win such as SNF or MNF and playing them the following week. People, including some "sharps" are commenting on it. But what is the truth?

The truth is, teams coming off a game such as this who won as a road dog and are now the favorites have gone 12-20 ATS since 2002. Including 2-3 ATS last season. Not so hot.


But that's not what we have here. Here we have an undervalued dog who is a dog again for the second week in a row. Teams who played SNF or MNF and won as a road dog and are dogs for a 2^nd straight week are actually 6-2 ATS since 2002 and 2-0 ATS last season.

That stat isn't necessarily a REASON to take Chi, it's more the "truth" behind some of the numbers you may have seen. As you may know from my style, I'm always one to investigate a stat/trend and find the answer for myself. The fact is, if Chi became a favorite for Sunday's game simply because they looked great on SNF, I wouldn't like them as much.


But Car pulled off a "stunner" to many (remember, I had Car + points last week) out in SD, and now are returning home a town hero. And they've been crowned the 3.5 point favorite on Sunday.

I like Chi in this spot to cover the 3.5, and a couple of reasons I can share are:

• As good as Carolina is as a road dog at pulling off upsets, when they get back home they lose gas and are just 1-4 ATS (since 2002) in games following a road dog victory towards the 1^st half of the season.

• Carolina is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their home openers under John Fox, including 0-5 SU as a favorite. Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU in week 2 games under Lovie Smith.

Ten +1
Since 2002, Tennessee has faced the following teams in Week 2: Indy 3 times, SD once, Dal once, Bal once.

Which week 2 was not like the others? If you guessed Bal, you would be right. Ten won that game 25-10 on a +3.5 line. Ten is going to be glad to face this Cincy team in week 2 as opposed to a NFL power like they have in prior seasons.

• After winning at home as an underdog, then hitting the road as a dog the following week, Ten is 5-1 ATS including 3-0 since 2002.

• Cincy on the other hand is merely mediocre when following up a road loss back at home. They are 3-3-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis after losing on the road and returning home as a fav.

• The game after facing Jacksonville and getting a win, Tennessee is 6-1 ATS since 2002.

• Bengals are 0-2-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis following a loss to the Ravens. (Remember, Marvin Lewis coached for Baltimore and those matchups vs. the Ravens are big games for him).

I will give you a "heads up" on a play for Sunday night, however, I will not advise betting until Sunday. This is because WEATHER could affect this play. Of course, that game is Pit/Cle in Cleveland. As you know from my update yesterday morning, I posted Hurricane Ike's storm track. I will update it here again:


The beauty of these images is that they will constantly update. Therefore, the words I am typing now may not relate to the picture you see in a few hours. But, as of Friday afternoon, it appears this system may impact Cleveland on Sunday evening. A lot will still depend on actual storm track once it makes landfall as well as the speed at which it is moving. However, current models are tracking it to hit the Ohio area on Sunday evening. However, some models do show it taking a slightly more "Western" track and may not hit Cleveland Sunday Evening. As of now, the current forecast for Sunday evening in Cleveland is:

And the forecast at Cleveland Stadium, which is right off the water, is currently calling for 20 mph winds from the south, and thunderstorms. If weather was not a factor, I would have already made the play.

I WILL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH I WILL STILL LEAVE THIS WRITE UP HERE, I DEFINITELY DO NOT ADVISE MAKING THIS PLAY. IN FACT, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I ALMOST ADVISE REVERSING AND PLAYING UNDER 44.5.

THIS STORM IS NO JOKE, AND IF THE SYSTEM IS INDEED DIRECTLY OVER CLEVELAND, AROUND 9PM EST, WHICH IS WHAT THE WEATHER REPORTS SEEM TO INDICATE, POINTS WILL DEFINITELY COME AT A PREMIUM. I CAME UP WITH THIS PLAY ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS NOT GOING TO PLAY AS LARGE A ROLE. AS WE KNOW KNOW, IT WILL.

SO I AM STILL LEAVING MY WRITEUP HERE, BUT I WILL ADVISE FURTHER IN THE A.M.

Pit/Cle Over 44.5

Since Big Ben has been QB of the Steelers in 2004:

When playing IN Cleveland, the Steelers score an avg of 31 points (24, 41, 24, 34), and the final total game score of 49 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 12 points.


When playing the first H2H matchup of the season, regardless of location, the Steelers score an avg of 32 points (34, 34, 24, 34). The final total game score of 40 avg points went over the posted avg total (37) by 3 points.


To tally that up, Overs have gone 5-1 in the either the first H2H of the year or if the game is in Cleveland.


I also look back to last season, where Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. the Steelers, losing 34-7. They re-tooled, and those 7 points would be the fewest they would score all season. They went on to avg 26 points the rest of the season, including 51 in Week 2 (albeit vs Cin) and 28 in their next matchup w/ the Steelers.


This season, Cleveland came out of the gates in Week 1 and dropped an egg vs. Dallas, losing 28-10. They surely realize they will struggle to stop Pit on offense, and must find ways to produce big plays on offense and score a large number of points.

Now, I will make you aware that this 44.5 point total is WAY higher than typical totals in this series. Prior to last year's week 10 matchup, the average total for the previous 7 games was 37. Over went 5-2 by an avg of 7 points. Last year in week 10, the total was raised to 47.5, and the game finished at a total of 59, 11.5 points higher than the total.


While the 44.5 point posted total is much higher than fans of this series have come to expect, oddsmakers were left no choice with the constant overs these two teams posted. While I think this is a very fair posted line, I look for value on the side of the Over, as I see both teams contributing to a combined score which should surpass the posted line. A key component will be the kick return ability of Josh Cribbs, who missed last week's game. If Cribbs can get Cleveland into good field position to lead to a quick score in at least 1 of his returns, I see this game eclipsing 44.5.

[aiverson]

Adding:

Oak +3.5

A key trend on this one: Teams that were 15+ point road underdogs the prior week and lost in a close game (7 points or fewer) are 2-8 SU the following week back at home.

I may be back for a 4PM or the 8PM games, so stay tuned.

The total on the SNF game is indeed cancelled. Weather is calling for 20-22mph winds and 70% chance of T-Storms.

Good luck in all your plays today!

[Broke]

looks good buddy

[BBQ Man]

Looking forward to your input!! Thanks for sharing.

[Paddywack]

You are some sort of capper, nice work.

[Broke]

looking forward to your late plays

[jeff_tweedy]

wow. really great work here. any leans on the tampa game? or what side are you on with the pittsburgh/clev game?

[BigDon]

Thanks for your posting. keep up the good work !

[aiverson]

Hope you guys got in on another great day.

3-0 yesterday.

10-1 record to start the first 2 weeks.

I hope these plays are not getting lost on some of your minds, but feel free to sign up for the e-mail list to avoid missing these each week.

Not sure if I will have a play tonight or not.

[CaptFlippy]

Nicely Done!

[raiderguy]

Nice job. Do you do strictly NFL or college also?

[aiverson]

I focus only on the NFL. I designed my system exclusively for the NFL and devote all my time to it.

[aiverson]

Sent this out earlier today via e-mail...

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

* Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
* In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
* Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
* Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.

[core42]

Sent this out earlier today via e-mail...

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

* Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
* In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
* Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
* Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.

I'm on it...thanks for the plays!!!

[aiverson]

1-0 on MNF, brings the total to 4-0 for Week 2 plays.

11-1 through the first 2 weeks.

I will hope to have some selections for Week 3 by Friday night. I will post all plays here Sun AM but will e-mail out whatever I have as of Fri night, so check the site if you want to get on the list and haven't already.

[Brotherwo]

hell of a run!
keep it up AI

[The Shambler]

Wow Great picks and a heck of a start!!

I look forward to your thread next week.

[thecruncher]

VN, AI. In spite of having the user name of an NBA player and one who has made his fair share of bone-headed moves at that, AI has always been a great contributer to the NFL here at theRX.

[knowthegame]

Sent this out earlier today via e-mail...

Phi +7

A few of the reasons why I like this play:

* Dallas is 0-5 ATS on MNF as the Fav since 2000, including 0-4 ATS as Home Favs and 1-3 SU.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs on MNF since 2000, including 5-1 SU.
* In the first 3 weeks of the season, after a win, Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
* Road dogs on MNF in NFC East are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in the last 10 years.
* Dallas is 2-7 ATS after a win when playing as a home fav vs. NFC East, including 4-5 SU. They are on a 7 consecutive ATS loss streak.

I think the Eagles do have the opportunity to win this game. But I will hope for a close game that ends within one TD. Also, I don't want you to think I am a "trend bettor". I use it as a tool to share my plays with you, but you can bet that I factor a lot more into my plays than these trends. However, certain trends are valuable, and I create angles and then research these angles from scratch on each trend I post.

What to do if the line moves off of 7? I know that will be a big question for many of you. At the time of this writing, you can still get 7, but most outlets already are at 6.5.
#1 -There is a chance you can get 7 closer to kickoff.
#2 - You can simply buy that half point if you don't want to wait.
#3 - You can just take 6.5.

I won't tell you what to do, it is your money. I can only tell you I like Philly and have them at +7. Would I feel more comfortable for you if you had the 7? YES! But do I dislike Philly at +6.5? Definitely NOT!

I am not the type of guy who always advises buying points. Sometimes they help, other times they are too expensive and really hamstring you into having a much higher win % to profit due to the higher juice. So you can make the decision on that.

I am 3-0 to start Week 2 and hoping to finish on a positive note. Win or lose, my system begins to kick in next week. While it will take a few weeks for it to sync up and really hone in on the value plays, it will be good to have it as a reference tool next week.

Good luck tonight.

[Cougar24]

Hellava start ai let's get'm again this week...thanks

[liftnbet]

great great job!!!!

[kidslick]

enjoy the weekend....

[alexda[]]

wheres week 3